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Author Archives: scuttleblurb

[AMZN – Amazon, GOOG – Alphabet] Trillion Dollar Baby

When paired with a (truly) stable capital base, “behavior” is cited by many, including myself, as the supreme edge – trumping information (in theory, equally accessible to all) and analysis (smart people abound) – since, when investing over a long time-frame, what matters more than the singular decision to buy a stock is how we behave through […]

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[MRC – MRC Global, CF – CF Industries] Closer to Entry

[MRC – MRC Global] Among a fragmented base of competitors, MRC is the largest distributor of pipes (15% of revenue), valves (38%), fittings and flanges (45%) (PVF) to the oil and gas sector, with over 3/4 of its revenue coming from North America.  The company pools orders across its 17k customers (the largest customer is […]
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[ADNT – Adient] Self-Help Margin Expansion Opportunity, 4-Year Double

In a quick blurb from last month, I flippantly wrote: “I don’t think 10x/1x EPS/BV for a moatless auto lender at or near the peak of the auto cycle is all that cheap.”  Well, how about a sorta-moaty auto supplier trading at 7x?  My sense is that auto stocks – their single digit earnings multiples […]

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[OAK – Oaktree] Valuation Attractive on Normalized FRE

I looked at some Alternative Asset Managers (BX, KKR, CG, FIG, and OAK) a year ago as the group traded at depressed multiples and invested in OAK because I get Howard Marks’ investment philosophy (which seems to strongly imbue the organization despite Marks’ largely figure head status today) and frankly, I found the other names too […]

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[CF – CF Industries] Global N Fertilizer Supply But Pricing Recovery Priced In

I was pitched this stock recently and thought it sounded interesting enough to write about (I like industries where supply and demand curves are shifting in big ways), although I think upside from a recovery in nitrogen fertilizer prices is largely baked into the current valuation. Substantial new capacity from China, lower freight costs (to […]

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[CHUBA/K – CommerceHub] A Skeptical Take

Investors are once again genuflecting before the altar of Malone.  Here’s the bull case: to combat Amazon, traditional retailers are increasingly pursuing omnichannel strategies (selling their products online for delivery or customer pickup + bric & mortar) and adopting drop-shipping solutions as part of their online fulfillment process.  Drop-shipping allows products ordered by a retailer’s […]

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Quick Blurbs [WisdomTree, Ally, Hanesbrands, Anthem, Wabash]

[WETF] After a killer few years from 2012-2015 on the success of its currency hedged Japanese (DXJ) and European equity funds (HEDJ), the stock lost 2/3s of its value from peak (Aug. 2015) to trough (early Nov. 2016) on heavy fund outflows before rallying 40% after the Trump election.  WETF experienced a huge inflow in […]
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[EBAY – eBay] Dilemma and Opportunity

After having not followed eBay for a long while, I tuned into eBay’s Seller Summit in late 2015 where the company laid out its structured data agenda, intensifying its strategic move away from the messy, spectrum-of-value bazaar of an earlier .com era – when, in the absence of 2-day shipping and consumer experience, broad selection […]

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