Tag Archives: Cyclical

[GBX – Greenbrier] Valuation Update

Greenbrier and Trinity (TRN) act as a duopoly in the North American railcar industry, together accounting for nearly 80% of total backlog, with both players taking market share over the last decade (GBX: 13% in September 2006 -> 33% today; TRN: 36% -> 44%; ARII: 21% -> 6%).  Needless to say, the railcar manufacturing and […]
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[DOOR – Masonite Intl] Reasonable Valuation, So-So Moat

[DOOR – Masonite Intl] This stock got smoked last week post-earnings.  DOOR is now back to where it was at the start of 2014, when the company was generating less than half the pre-tax cash profits it does today. If you’re unfamiliar, Masonite and Jen-Weld (JELD) are vertically integrated duopolists in the US residential interior door manufacturing […]
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Quick Blurbs [Ashtead, Fastenal, MSC Industrial, United Rentals, Zion Oil & Gas]

[ZN – Zion Oil and Gas] Heard about this stock on a podcast; I doubt you can find borrow.  What is it?  Oh, just your run-of-the-mill $240mn+ market cap Nasdaq-listed oil and gas concern whose drilling activity is guided, nay, “inspired” by the Old Testament.  Here’s an excerpt from the company’s 2016 10K: Zion’s vision, […]
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[CBG – CBRE Group] Good Biz, Expensive on Normalized Earnings

(2,377 words) CBG is a fine company but to claim that it is reasonably cycle-resilient post-GWS acquisition is an exaggeration.  Deriving 70% of fee revenue from contractual and purportedly recurring sources will not meaningfully cushion profits in the event of a commercial real estate swoon. From its roots as a regional commercial real estate broker founded in the aftermath of […]
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[GNRC – Generac] Value Come, Value Go

(2,400 words) In between diaper changes and infant tantrums, I finally got around to looking at GNRC this past week. Given the stock’s ostensibly low earnings multiple and a share price that has gotten hammered over the last several years on what appears to be mostly cyclical reasons, I wanted to like the company but couldn’t […]
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