Category Archives: [GBX] Greenbrier

[GBX – Greenbrier] Valuation Update

Greenbrier and Trinity (TRN) act as a duopoly in the North American railcar industry, together accounting for nearly 80% of total backlog, with both players taking market share over the last decade (GBX: 13% in September 2006 -> 33% today; TRN: 36% -> 44%; ARII: 21% -> 6%).  Needless to say, the railcar manufacturing and […]
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Quick Blurbs [Delta Airlines, Greenbrier, MSC Industrial, Fastenal]

(2,130 words) [MSM – MSC Industrial; FAST – Fastenal] Recall that 70% of MSM’s sales come from manufacturing customers (esp. metalworking), who have seen their average daily sales decline by msd/hsd for each of the last 5 quarters prior to 4q16.  Last quarter, the company saw the beginnings of a recovery…. Management is reluctant to […]
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[GBX – Greenbrier] Valuation About Fair on Normalized Railcar Shipments

(862 words) GBX (1/6/17) The industry’s long-term average railcar deliveries are around 45k-50k units/year, so even after the decline from ~82k deliveries in 2015 (tank cars for crude and railcars for coal got smoked as commodities cracked), 2016’s 60k units are still running above normalized levels as units have been since 2012.  GBX’s own backlog […]
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