[GBX – Greenbrier] Valuation About Fair on Normalized Railcar Shipments

(862 words) GBX (1/6/17) The industry’s long-term average railcar deliveries are around 45k-50k units/year, so even after the decline from ~82k deliveries in 2015 (tank cars for crude and railcars for coal got smoked as commodities cracked), 2016’s 60k units are still running above normalized levels as units have been since 2012.  GBX’s own backlog […]

To access this post, you must purchase Annual subscription or Quarterly subscription.

[PPG – PPG Industries] High Quality Specialty Chem with Share Gain Opportunities

PPG is a soundly capitalized century+ old global[1] coatings manufacturer that has averaged low-teens unlevered after-tax return on capital over the last two decades[2] and whose stock I toe-holed at 15x trailing earnings after the Company pre-announced disappointing 3Q earnings on volume weakness in Europe, where it had previously witnessed relatively strong growth. Our daily […]

To access this post, you must purchase Annual subscription or Quarterly subscription.

[DF – Dean Foods] Levered Commodity Processor, Impending Challenges

Dean is a levered commodity processor sandwiched between fragmented but price-protected dairy producers and consolidated retailers, donating market share in a secularly declining market to undisciplined, subscale peers.  Its stock trades for 16x management’s charitably adjusted EPS,[1] a full market multiple for a narrow-moat business. The environment in recent years beckons 2007-2010: 1) a period of rapidly […]

To access this post, you must purchase Annual subscription or Quarterly subscription.

[BRO – Brown & Brown] Compounder in a Fragmented Sector

“He wasn’t just saving his own soul when he donned his coat and hat after dinner and went out again to resume his work – no, it was also to save some poor son of a bitch on the brink of letting his insurance policy lapse, and thus endangering his family’s security ‘in the event […]

[DDMG – Digital Domain] Confused Corporate Strategy, Few Sustainable Advantages

Overview Digital Domain Media Group, Inc. (“DDMG” or “the Company”) is a short because it loses money, has had questionable related party transactions, a confused corporate strategy that could lead to further shareholder destruction and few sustainable competitive advantages.  DDMG has ~43mn shares outstanding; ~35mn of those shares are under a lock-up agreement that expires […]

To access this post, you must purchase Annual subscription or Quarterly subscription.