[LYV] SOME OF IT’S MAGIC, SOME OF IT’S TRAGIC

(6,848 words) Live Nation’s business model is unique, contextually rich, and complicated.  While I think this is a decent business – to see this you have to consider all its parts, some of which are mediocre on a standalone basis, as an interlocking whole – I don’t think the purported “platform” is as interesting as […]
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[DG] QUICK FOLLOW-UP TO LAST POST

(980 words) Hey.  So you remember that time last week when I wrote in my DG post: The typical FD and DG customer occupies the lower to lower-middle income brackets [~60% of DG’s customers are in the $15k-$49k income bracket vs. 45% for the US population] and makes weekly “fill-in” trips for essential items [which are […]
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[LEN] VALUATION UPDATE

(1,369 words) LEN’s y/y home delivery growth has decelerated significantly over the last several years (from mid-teens in fy14 to 9.5% LTM), but in chorus with other builders, the company is singing an optimistic refrain post-Trump. “Since November we have seen a combination of renewed optimism, wage and job growth, and consumer confidence. As a result, our […]
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[DG] PROFIT PRESSURES PERSIST, STORE GROWTH STILL ACCRETIVE

(1,419) While headwinds from SNAP cuts and retail unit deflation continue, they seem to be attenuating with 4Q comps improved to +1% vs. -0.1% last quarter (the first negative quarterly comp in at least a decade).  Rather than hunkering down and slashing costs, the company is reinvesting in the business on a number of fronts, testing various […]
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[AMZN, GOOG] TRILLION DOLLAR BABY

(5,227 words) One reason I prefer writing off-the-cuff blog posts to crafting hygienic investment memos, letters, and slide decks (as I’ve done for most of my career) is that readers more naturally think of the former as experimental content, to be revised as new information is got and existings claims reanalyzed, which makes it easier to […]
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[MRC, CF] CLOSER TO ENTRY

(2,310 words) Among a fragmented base of competitors, MRC is the largest distributor of pipes (15% of revenue), valves (38%), fittings and flanges (45%) (PVF) to the oil and gas sector, with over 3/4 of its revenue coming from North America.  The company pools orders across its 17k customers (the largest customer is ~8% of […]
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QUICK BLURBS [DLTR, EQC, PYPL, RUSHA, SQ]

(1,427 words) [DLTR: 3/1/17] Respectable quarter with positive comps and margin expansion at both Dollar Tree (+2.4% ex. fx, positive comps each month) and Family Dollar (+0.2%, avg ticket +30bps, traffic down, particular strength in the West and Northeast) driving total sales to the mid of the guided range and EPS above the top-end.  As expected, […]
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