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[ADNT – Adient] Self-Help Margin Expansion Opportunity, 4-Year Double

In a quick blurb from last month, I flippantly wrote: “I don’t think 10x/1x EPS/BV for a moatless auto lender at or near the peak of the auto cycle is all that cheap.”  Well, how about a sorta-moaty auto supplier trading at 7x?  My sense is that auto stocks – their single digit earnings multiples […]

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[OAK – Oaktree] Valuation Attractive on Normalized FRE

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I looked at some Alternative Asset Managers (BX, KKR, CG, FIG, and OAK) a year ago as the group traded at depressed multiples and invested in OAK because I get Howard Marks’ investment philosophy (which seems to strongly imbue the organization despite Marks’ largely figure head status today) and frankly, I found the other names too […]

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[CF – CF Industries] Global N Fertilizer Supply But Pricing Recovery Priced In

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I was pitched this stock recently and thought it sounded interesting enough to write about (I like industries where supply and demand curves are shifting in big ways), although I think upside from a recovery in nitrogen fertilizer prices is largely baked into the current valuation. Substantial new capacity from China, lower freight costs (to […]

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[CHUBA/K – CommerceHub] A Skeptical Take

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Investors are once again genuflecting before the altar of Malone.  Here’s the bull case: to combat Amazon, traditional retailers are increasingly pursuing omnichannel strategies (selling their products online for delivery or customer pickup + bric & mortar) and adopting drop-shipping solutions as part of their online fulfillment process.  Drop-shipping allows products ordered by a retailer’s […]

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Quick Blurbs [WisdomTree, Ally, Hanesbrands, Anthem, Wabash]

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[WETF] After a killer few years from 2012-2015 on the success of its currency hedged Japanese (DXJ) and European equity funds (HEDJ), the stock lost 2/3s of its value from peak (Aug. 2015) to trough (early Nov. 2016) on heavy fund outflows before rallying 40% after the Trump election.  WETF experienced a huge inflow in […]
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[EBAY – eBay] Dilemma and Opportunity

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After having not followed eBay for a long while, I tuned into eBay’s Seller Summit in late 2015 where the company laid out its structured data agenda, intensifying its strategic move away from the messy, spectrum-of-value bazaar of an earlier .com era – when, in the absence of 2-day shipping and consumer experience, broad selection […]

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[LEN – Lennar] Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

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Conservatively, the US needs to build about 1.3mn homes annually (MF and single-family) to keep pace with household formation (population growth + “headship” rates) and secondary home demand, and replace destroyed housing stock.  Based on Census Bureau data, it looks like we overbuilt by around 3.5mn units from 2000 to 2007 and underbuilt by 4.1mn […]

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Quickblurb [AXP – American Express; SAP – SAP SE]

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[AXP] Mounting pressure on multiple fronts could collectively confound the Street’s expectations of low double digit EPS growth in 2018 and 2019.  [As you’re likely aware, AXP primarily differs from Visa and Mastercard in that the company, in addition to running a payment processing network like its peers, also: 1) issues credit cards (i.e. makes loans) […]
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