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David (and others):
How do you get comfortable that
1) regulation won’t disrupt the inputs of the identity graph (federal opt-in legislation vs. opt-out status quo)
2) I get that their identity graph is pretty resilient (vs. a pure cross-device identity graph that Tapad has, etc) because the graph has a lot of “inputs” (VZ data, email data, smartreach, 3P data from Experian/Acxiom etc.). However, how do you get comfortable that an acceleration in the shutoff of these inputs won’t eventually impair the identity graph to the point that it’s not as monetizable? Yes I understand the argument that most open internet identity graph competitors have worse graphs than LiveRamp does so will get hurt disproportionately when that happens. However, I still question the overall resilience of the business (and thus, the 7-10 SaaS multiple that bulls, including myself, are arguing for)
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/nepxbz/i-gave-a-bounty-hunter-300-dollars-located-phone-microbilt-zumigo-tmobile
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/qvqgnd/sprint-stop-selling-location-data-tmobile-att-microbilt-zumigo
In the end, these questions probably won’t matter since they’ll probably get taken out.

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Posted by dmeng (Questions: 1, Answers: 0)
Asked on January 18, 2019 5:20 am
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I’ll jump in. I like the name…have similar thoughts and concerns. I think it’s a much bigger question about whether ad based open internet even has a future. I personally think there is a big difference between the privacy fears reported in the media and the level of privacy leakage consumers are actually willing to tolerate though I also think the former drives policy more than the latter.
I worry less about RAMP’s competitive position in open ad tech than open ad tech’s competitive position vis-à-vis GOOG/FB. One could argue that RAMP neutralizes or is the least of the privacy evils since they are matching anonymized IDs, not sharing data or lists across different marketers. In the end I have a hard time seeing anything too extreme as so many publishers depend on ad revenue and doing so would arguably just further entrench FB and GOOG. Some guys like data aggregators might get the hammer.
If you can get past an industry tsunami scenario of a draconian regulatory crack down, I think what matters is as you say -- the *relative* importance of RAMP in the ecosystem. As long as there is an ads based online economy outside of FB/GOOGL, bilateral matches will have to be replaced by a common identity …and this is really a matter of relative efficacy to the walled gardens and, by consequence, a matter of ad tech viability…. and that is a job that tends towards winner take most, to state the obv.
I don’t know if you ever really get comfortable with this risk and maybe it should trade at a SaaS discount as a result. It’s sort of like the CFPB regulatory risk re: WRLD and other installment lenders. The best you can do is size it right. Sheesh, someone just buy this thing please…ADBE? ORCL? Anyone? 🙂

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Posted by CrackPotInvestor (Questions: 0, Answers: 3)
Answered on January 18, 2019 1:26 pm