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(1) KPIs & Sales:

a. Daily active users (DAUs) – DAUs were 1.52 billion on average for December 2018, an increase of 9% year-over-year.
b. MZ: At least 2 billion people us FB every day (de-duped)
c. 2018Q4 ad revenues +30% year-on-year to $16.6 billion (+33% ex-FX)
– APAC: +34%
– NA: +31%
– EUR: +28%
– ROW: +24% (FX weakness & macroeconomic “challenges”)
d. 2018Y ad revs: $55 billion

(2) Costs and EBIT:

a. 2018Q4 costs and expenses: +62% year-on-year to $7.8 billion
b. 2018Q4 EBIT margin 46% vs. 57% in 2017Q4

c. 2018Y costs and expenses: $31 billion
d. 2018Y EBIT: $24.9 billion

(3) 2019 FB priorities (per MZ):

a. Progress on social issues: continue to “build systems that proactively identify harmful content”, headcount was 35,587 as of December 31, 2018, an increase of 42% year-over-year (30k in safety and security at the end of 2018)
b. Improve the product: best-in-class encryption, payments through WhatsApp, 400MM people use Watch every month (20 minutes daily on average, MZ thinks “Watch” will have a breakout in 2019), MZ highlighted Instagram Shopping in 2019
c. Keep supporting the millions of businesses that rely on FB: “More than 90 million small businesses use FB” – half “for free”; SS: “more than 7 million active advertisers across FB’s services”
d. Communicate transparently FB’s role in the world

(4) Cost and capex guidance UN-changed vs. last quarter with NEW sales guidance:

a. Revenue outlook: expect 2019Q1 to decelerate “by a mid-single digit percentage” ex-FX vs. Q4 – and expect revenue growth to decelerate each quarter in 2019
b. Total expenses: +40-50% vs. 2018 (unchanged vs. guide)
c. Capex guide: unchanged at $18-$20 billion of capex (primarily data center construction)

5. Cash / FCF / valuation

a. 2018Y: $29.3 billion CFO (includes $4.2 billion of SBC), $13.9 billion capex, $15.3 billion FCF
b. Cash and investments at year end: $41 billion
c. Share repo in Q4: $3.5 billion
d. 2.9 billion diluted shares * $168 per share (A/H = $487 billion, less cash and investments = $446 billion

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Posted by misvalueinvestor (Questions: 7, Answers: 0)
Asked on January 30, 2019 11:15 pm
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